MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN

ISLAMABAD ( 2008-11-22 04:36:54 ) :The country will be experiencing its worst-ever power crisis, starting next month as indigenous sources of energy, ie water and gas, will be unable to meet demand of power generation industry, well-informed sources in the Federal government told Business Recorder on Friday.

In recent months, the government faced severe criticism due to power load shedding throughout the country and in several cities, people came out on the streets to protest against non-supply of electricity for 18 hours a day.

"Pakistan will face up to 4000 MW power shortage from next month (December) and those ministers, who are taking credit for narrowing the gap between demand and supply of energy, will no longer be in a position to defend the government policies," the sources added. It is predicted that rural areas will have to face up to 15 hours of load shedding per day in winter, whereas cities will remain dark for six to eight hours a day.

Sources said the Indus River System Authority (Irsa), which regulated water releases from dams, had conveyed a very dismal picture of water in December to the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) with the advice that the utility should prepare an alternate power generation plan, using other sources. "We will start gradual reduction in releases from the last week of November and in mid-December, there will be complete closure," the sources added.

Irsa estimates that in January, outflows from Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs will be around 5000 cusecs each, which effectively means that hydel power generation will be at a low level. A couple of months ago, Irsa projected 35 per cent shortfall in water availability in December, January and February. An official from the Petroleum Ministry told Business Recorder that Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) had already been informed that the gas companies would not be able to supply gas to dual fuel power plants in winter.

Minister for Water and Power Raja Pervez Ashraf had blamed the Musharraf regime for not inducting even a single unit in the power generation system, but two days ago the Ministry of Water and Power in a written reply to the National Assembly refuted the claim of its own Ministry. The ministry conceded that 2200 MW power had been injected in the system during the last seven years.

According to the Ministry of Water and Power, the total quantity of electric power installed capacity in the country is 19,671 MW, with hydel 6444 MW, thermal 4840 MW, IPPs (thermal) 6196 MW, IPPs (hydel) 30 MW and rental power plants 285 MW. Raja Pervez Ashraf informed the National Assembly that 650 MW electricity would be added to the national grid by December 2009.



Copyright Business Recorder, 2008